Technical Report

Holiday Season Trading -
Historical Study of Ray Scalper trades in December- January
15 December, 2012

Deciding to trade during the year end holiday season has been a tough decision for all traders. We receive queries seeking our advice/recommendation if it would be safe to run the right through the Christmas - New Year Holiday season.

It would be impossible to make this recommendation based on price action or expected price action. Ray Scalper is built on an innovative strategy and we are very confident that it can handle most price actions very well. Drawdowns are common and an unavoidable part of any trading strategy - It would not be possible to predict if the EA will do well or go through a DD phase.

We have conducted strategy tests for the period between 26th November to 31st January for the past 12 years. Based on the tests, the performance during these two months has been with in the equity curve has been within normal DD - Gain limits and all averages are in agreement with the long term (12 year) backtests. We do not see any reason to recommend switching off the Ray Scalper EA during the holiday period.

Members can study these tests in detail and include the results of these studies in their criteria on making a decision regarding running/stopping the EA during the December January Holiday season.

The strategy results has been summarized in the table below:

Year	Trades	Gain/Loss	MAD DD	Win%
2011-2012	64	0.10%	8.57%	76%
2010-2011	48	0.12%	15.98%	79%
2009-2010	42	12.03%	7.94%	88%
2008-2009	68	0.31%	20.51%	73%
2007-2008	45	7.35%	6.25%	84%
2006-2007	26	2.28%	3.73%	80%
2005-2006	39	-5.18%	12.48%	74%
2004-2005	43	2.09%	7.26%	83%
2003-2004	49	3.73%	10.88%	77%
2002-2003	35	-4.69%	10.43%	77%
2001-2002	37	-9.29%	17.18%	67%
2000-2001	60	38.19%	6.03%	90%

The Drawdowns seen are within the Max DD of 30% seen on the 12 year test. The win percentage is also close the the average of about 80%.

The average monthly gain on 12 year back test was about 2%. Ray Scalper tests show that the EA has the potential of making average to above average gains or atleast breakeven during Dec-Jan trading.

The EA has 3 losing Dec-Jan periods over the past 12 years. It also has 3 above average gaining period.

The detailed strategy reports for each year is given below:

All Tests Conducted for the period between 26th November to 31st January.
Max Allocation : 8, (Default - 1411 recommended Setting) Pair: EURUSD

Equity Curve December 2011 - January 2012

2011

Equity Curve December 2010 - January 2011

2010

Equity Curve December 2009- January 2010

2009

Equity Curve December 2008 - January 2009

2008

Equity Curve December 2007 - January 2008

2007

Equity Curve December 2006 - January 2007

2006

Equity Curve December 2005 - January 2006

2005

Equity Curve December 2004 - January 2005

2004

Equity Curve December 2003 - January 2004

2003

Equity Curve December 2002 - January 2003

2002

Equity Curve December 2001 - January 2002

2001

Equity Curve December 2000 - January 2001

2000

Click Here to download the complete Strategy reports of all the above tests - Download Test Results

Recommendation based on above study

Based on the above historical performance and our confidence in the strategy, we would recommend letting Ray Scalper EA trade un-interrupted.

Members who wish to stop rading during the Holiday season can safely switch off the Ray Scalper EA or Close MT4 platform running Ray Scalper as per the trader's discretion. If there are any open trades, it would be adviseable to disable live trades in the EA properties to enable the EA to close out existing positions - while preventing new trades prior to stopping the EA / MT4.

Disclaimer

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Clearly understand this: Information contained within this course is not an invitation to trade any specific investments. Trading requires risking money in pursuit of future gain. That is your decision. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. This document does not take into account your own individual financial and personal circumstances. It is intended for educational purposes only and NOT as individual investment advice. Do not act on this without advice from your investment professional, who will verify what is suitable for your particular needs & circumstances. Failure to seek detailed professional personally tailored advice prior to acting could lead to you acting contrary to your own best interests & could lead to losses of capital.

*CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

By using PhiBase Synergy, you acknowledge that you are familiar with these risks and that you are solely responsible for the outcomes of your decisions. We accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this product. It's to be noted carefully in this respect, that past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance.