Technical Report

Holiday Season Trading -
Historical Study of Synergy EA trades in December- January
15 December, 2012

Deciding to trade during the year end holiday season has been a tough decision for all traders. We receive queries seeking our advice/recommendation if it would be safe to run the right through the Christmas - New Year Holiday season.

It would be impossible to make this recommendation based on price action or expected price action. Synergy EA is built on a solid strategy and we are very confident that it can handle most price actions very well. Drawdowns are common and an unavoidable part of any trading strategy - It would not be possible to predict if the EA will do well or go through a DD phase.

We have conducted strategy tests for the period between 26th November to 31st January for the past 12 years. Based on the tests, the performance during these two months has been with in the equity curve has been within normal DD - Gain limits and all averages are in agreement with the long term (12 year) backtests. We do not see any reason to recommend switching off the Synergy EA during the holiday period.

Members can study these tests in detail and include the results of these studies in their criteria on making a decision regarding running/stopping the EA during the December January Holiday season.

The strategy results has been summarized in the table below:

Year	Trades	Gain/Loss	MAX DD	Win%
2011-2012	49	2.98%	8.31%	45%
2010-2011	35	1.44%	6.22%	68%
2009-2010	32	9.74%	6.87%	68%
2008-2009	32	10.34%	15.16%	71%
2007-2008	34	-4.85%	10.75%	52%
2006-2007	19	1.38%	4.42%	52%
2005-2006	39	3.43%	7.03%	48%
2004-2005	31	8.92%	6.35%	45%
2003-2004	24	7.84%	7.45%	50%
2002-2003	13	3.81%	2.61%	69%
2001-2002	26	-3.44%	9.37%	57%
2000-2001	16	8.87%	6.13%	75%

The Drawdowns seen are within the Max DD of 20% seen on the 12 year test. The average monthly gain on 12 year back test was about 2% and the gains obtained in the historical test is also in agreement with this average in 8 out of 12 years.

The detailed strategy reports for each year is given below:

All Tests Conducted for the period between 26th November to 31st January.
Max Allocation : 10, Max_Position : 4 (Default - Recommended) Pair: EURUSD

Equity Curve December 2011 - January 2012

2011

Equity Curve December 2010 - January 2011

2010

Equity Curve December 2009- January 2010

2009

Equity Curve December 2008 - January 2009

2008

Equity Curve December 2007 - January 2008

2007

Equity Curve December 2006 - January 2007

2006

Equity Curve December 2005 - January 2006

2005

Equity Curve December 2004 - January 2005

2004

Equity Curve December 2003 - January 2004

2003

Equity Curve December 2002 - January 2003

2002

Equity Curve December 2001 - January 2002

2001

Equity Curve December 2000 - January 2001

2000

Click Here to download the complete Strategy reports of all the above tests - Download Test Results

Recommendation based on above study

Based on the above historical performance and our confidence in the strategy, we would recommend letting the EA trade un-interrupted.

USDCHF is an optional trading pair which has been mirroring the price action of EURUSD. This correlation has been very good during the past few years due to which Synergy EA has been able to trade well on this pair. However, Synergy EA is well tested and has performed better on EURUSD over 12 years period. This makes it the safer than trading USDCHF.

Members who wish to reduce risk exposure can consider switching off trading on USDCHF and let Synergy trade only EURUSD during the holiday season. Doing this will approximately cut the risk exposure by about 50%.

Members who wish to avoid trading during the holiday season can choose to disable "Allow Live Trade" in the EA's properties. This will keep the EA running but will avoid new trades till the live trades are enabled again.

Disclaimer

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer – Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts. Clearly understand this: Information contained within this course is not an invitation to trade any specific investments. Trading requires risking money in pursuit of future gain. That is your decision. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. This document does not take into account your own individual financial and personal circumstances. It is intended for educational purposes only and NOT as individual investment advice. Do not act on this without advice from your investment professional, who will verify what is suitable for your particular needs & circumstances. Failure to seek detailed professional personally tailored advice prior to acting could lead to you acting contrary to your own best interests & could lead to losses of capital.

*CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

By using PhiBase Synergy, you acknowledge that you are familiar with these risks and that you are solely responsible for the outcomes of your decisions. We accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this product. It's to be noted carefully in this respect, that past results are not necessarily indicative of future performance.